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CMHC expects housing starts and sales to slide over next 2 years

Income, employment support demand for housing, but they’re expected to slow, agency says

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the country’s real estate market is expected to moderate over the next two years as the growth in housing prices begins to slow to be more in line with economic fundamentals.

In its 2018 housing market outlook released Tuesday, the national housing agency projects housing starts and sales are both expected to decline in 2019 and 2020.

It predicts housing starts for single and multi-unit starts will fall to between 193,700 and 204,500 in 2019, while sales are anticipated to be between 478,400 and 497,400 units. Prices are anticipated to range between $501,400 and $521,600.

“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” Bob Dugan, chief economist at the CMHC, said in a statement.

“Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks, while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and populations growth.”

The agency expects the number of single-detached housing starts to decrease due to a number of factors including the availability of lot sizes, housing prices and higher borrowing costs. Continue reading